CWR 4101 - Lab 2

Streamflow and Probability Distributions


PURPOSE:

  • To demonstrate the use of probability distributions in developing a flood prediction.  Points = 3

 

 

EQUIPMENT:

 

 

PROCEDURE:

  1. Using the Water Resources Data for the State of Florida (United States Geological Survey), available on the Internet, select two gauging sites in the Saint Johns River of Florida. Select sites where at least 25 years of data exist. Record at least 25 consecutive yearly maximum flow and stage values at each site along with information concerning location of gauging stations including contributing area at each gage.
  2. Using the flow data collected and the DISTRIB for Windows program predict the 10, 25, 50, and 100 year return period maximum flows for the two stations.
  3. Compute the percent of each return period maximum flow relative to the 100 year return period maximum flow.
  4. Calculate the unit flow at each site and express your answer in units of cfs/square mile/year and inches per year.
  5. Text Problems 2.7.1 (6,8) & 2.7.2 (1)

 

 

 

OUTPUT:

The procedure followed in this lab has an ultimate outcome of predicting the flow rate due to an extreme event (10, 25, 50, or 100 Year Return Period). The distribution analysis is the portion which provides the prediction of the flow rate for an assumed return period.

Your report should include the following:

  • Locator map including the general area of the gauging stations (Appendix).
  • A tabulation of the year, stage, and flow used in developing the distribution (Appendix).
  • A tabulation (for each station) of the return period, the predicted flow, and the percent relative to the 100 year flow for that return period (Results).
  • A discussion of the size of your data set and how that relates to the uncertainty of your results, i.e., estimate reliability using Table 2.5 of your textbook (Discussion/Conclusion).
  • Careful examination of the yearly maximum stage and flow values may show similar flow values with varied stages, or vice versa. Discuss why this occurs (Discussion/Conclusion).
  • Calculations for the unit flow rates.
  • The Text problems assigned.

You will need to locate water resources data for your site. These data are available on the web or in hard copy, as in the library under U.S.G.S. Water Resources Data. The researching of these data is an exercise for the student (hint: the U.S.G.S. main computer address is www.usgs.gov and the water resources data will be in government documents in the library).

DISCUSSION

QUESTION:

Please generate historical hydrographs for the two locations along the St Johns River that you chose for this lab. Are there any major differences between the two hydrographs (maybe the average flow rate changes, etc.)? Please explain why this would occur.

After analyzing the historical hydrographs, you'll probably notice some extreme peaks or extreme valleys. Please provide real-life reasons as to why these events occurred (i.e., provide rainfall data, hurricane data, dam issues, construction issues, etc.). Also provide a source for your data.